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The Reshaping of Retirement: Volatility and the ‘sequence of returns’

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As a record number of baby boomers leave the workforce each day, the convergence of economic headwinds, market instability, and geopolitical uncertainty is reshaping what retirement looks like in America. Retirement advisors are stepping into a new kind of frontline—less about returns and more about resilience.

“Many folks are reconsidering their plans for retirement due to market uncertainty,” says Erika Wood, executive director of planning at Balefire, a Dallas-based investment advisor. ” ‘Sequence of returns risk’ is the risk that a bear market could happen at the wrong time—like early in retirement. It’s one of the most significant risks affecting people’s ability to retire successfully.”

This sequence of returns risk—where a downturn early in retirement disproportionately damages long-term wealth—has moved from textbook theory to lived experience. While some retirees may hope for a rebound, others cannot afford to wait. While markets have rebounded recently, that only increases anxiety that things can change on a whim and that the steps taken to protect one’s investments could be wrong.

Market volatility, driven in part by tariffs imposed and threatened by the Trump administration, is delivering painful consequences for older Americans.

Erika Wood

One of the leaders questioned is Balefire’s own Erika Wood, interviewed on market volatility relative to retirement.